Greetings from sunny Dalian, which is hosting the so-called “Summer Davos,” an attempt by the World Economic Forum to replicate its winter meeting of movers and shakers in China. With 1700 attendees all looking to get in some serious networking, the atmosophere in the meeting halls can be somewhat frenetic, rather akin to what I imagine speed dating must be like. Because it is required for entry into various parts of the venue, almost everyone has their security badge –which prominently advertizes your name and organization –on display. A lot of attendees obviously know each other from other meetings, if sometimes rather vaguely given the transient nature of such things, and this leads to much craning of necks a people stare at each others’ badges to check out whether they know someone–or actually might want to stop and exchange business cards or whatever.
Anyway, there’s a lot going on, both at the main event and on the sidelines. I ran into Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales at one event. He was an amiable fellow, but seemed strangely reluctant to discuss the fact that his site is more or less permanently blocked in China. Elsewhere, the WEF scored quite a coup by getting Premier Wen Jiabao to not only give a speech but answer some questions as well. He gave his usual well-prepared if a little stiff performance and even talked about how economic reform is pointless without political reform. That was a little bit of a suprise seeing a how he was at pains at a press conference earlier this year to stress that socialist democracy had a long, long way to go before it might come to resemble western notions of democracy. Wen did say that it was “people’s democracy” that would be expanded, which presumbaly means the same as “socialist democracy.”
On concluding, he got a polite round of applause from the audience. The clapping was fading as he was ushered off the stage. But Wen’s years of training in at highly scripted events suddenly seemed to kick in and he turned around and started giving that Communist leader’s wave to the adoring audience that Kim Jong Il also specializes in. The audience gamely resumed their applause as he stood there waving, but it was an awkward moment. I was, I suppose, watching his performance with particular interest because of the talk floating around that he may step down come the 17th Party Congress, which begins October 15th. That would be a surprise as he is an integral part of the government (usually in fact referred to as the Hu-Wen leadership) and also a much more man-of-the-people politican than his compatriots at the top. But for the keen eyes, the signs are there. The below is from our friends at Access Asia, who invariably have something insightful to contribute (or add to the silliness as they would say) on most China-related topics (warning: Zhongnanhai tealeaf reading ahead):
Wen has been rather difficult to spot lately – almost Kim Jong-il-like in his movements. After a few years of being everywhere (with the peasants, among the migrant workers, down the coalmines, flying the world), Wen seems to have gone slightly AWOL. Is he just tired, or is he going to be the fall guy for all that ails China? Is he being lined up to take the blame for rising inflation, pork prices, environmental degradation, rising property prices and the stock market bubble? Were he to fall on his sword, this would be a shame, as he has pushed the environmental agenda within the Party to a greater extent than anyone else, and is perhaps the most respected and liked Chinese number 2 internationally since Zhou En-lai.
We’ve been trying to work out where he’s been lately, and the answer is nowhere, much. You’d have thought he’d be grabbing photo ops during the floods, but no, not really. He did go to Japan on an “ice breaker” visit, but it was strangely muted in the domestic press. He also had a phone conversation with Angela Merkel, but not much was said apparently, despite Wen being a well-known Germanophile (or whatever you call people who like Germany). And that’s about it in the last six months.
All this perhaps adds up to an indication that Wen is about to stand down, to spend more time with his family (or “practising his calligraphy” as they say in China). But then it could all be silly season gossip over the summer – in which case, we’re glad to add to the silliness.