In a recent piece for TIME.com I mentioned how the Chinese government’s approach to elections in Taiwan is changing. In ’96 they fired missiles, but 12 years later Beijing is far more restrained. It’s clear that any aggressive moves by Beijing only energize supporters of Taiwan’s independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party.
The example I mentioned was how China has relied on the U.S. to take the lead in criticizing a referendum on applying to the U.N. under the name Taiwan. Since I filed that story another example has popped up. Malawai has shifted its diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing. (Six billion dollars in aid may have helped them change their mind.) The agreement was reached last month, but wasn’t announced until after Taiwan’s legislative elections this weekend. The reason for the delayed announcement? The SCMP says, “Analysts said Beijing probably made its diplomatic success known only after the election to avoid the announcement backfiring and prompting more DPP supporters to vote in the elections.”
Now of course this will be an issue in the March presidential election. Releasing the news now is, from Beijing’s perspective, better than having it slip out closer to the election. Which party will it help? It could be argued that President Chen Shui-bian let Malawi slip away, and thus be an issue against the DPP. But it probably works more strongly in the party’s favor as an example of the pressure China is putting Taiwan under, and can be used to rally the DPP base.