Reading Tea Leaves On Rural Reform

So the Chinese government finally issued a communique (official English language report from Xinhua here ) last night addressing the rural reform issue, about which both Austin and I have written previous posts (Austin’s is a couple of poasts before this, my most recent effusion here). This is a complex issue to which we will no doubt be returning repeatedly. The process by which the reform was mooted and presented by the government was however a sobering reminder of just how much time we spend groping around in the dark when it comes to knowing how China is governed, how decisions are made at the top level etc. With the widespread coverage of President Hu Jintao’s ostentatious visit the village that started the privatization of farming 30 years ago and his apparent promise that action would be taken to liberalize trading in land use rights, there was broad agreement that he was indicating that reform of some sort would be adopted at the Third Plenum of the Communist party, held in Beijing a week ago. But when the Plenum ended with no announcement of concrete policy change, stories started to appear speculating about power struggles among the top leadership, the possibility Hu had failed to get his reform policy passed (which would have been a major defeat), the possibility he might be in the process of dumping his premier, Wen Jiabao etc. Now the announcement seems to have put some of that speculation to rest, for the moment. But as I say, this episode has been a sobering reminder of just how opaque politics at the top remain in China, harkening back to the days when every shift in position oin the reviewing stand on national day parades was pored over by experts for signs that one leader was on the rise or another about to be purged.