Unemployment Numbers: II

Further to Austin’s post below, academic Victor Shih out of Northwestern University has a closer look at that 20 million number here. His conclusion on back-of-the-envelope calculation is that China’s real unemployment rate is around 8 percent. Interestingly, that would make it just about the same as the rate in the U.S. right now. Many people see reason for alarm in the figures and they are right to be worried. But if the rate is really only 8 percent and much of it in the countryside then things aren’t actually ll that bad. I suspect however the real rate is significantly higher and as Shih notes, probably starting to hit home in urban areas where consumer related jobs like retail must be starting to face the axe. Now that is cause for serious concern.