When I first saw the icon for today’s weather forecast–a yellow sun covered by a cloud and tiny dark spots–I thought the illustrator had gotten a little carried away with a visual depiction of air pollution. But as I rode to work in a light but steady drizzle, I recalled what that cloud over the sun is usually meant to designate: rain. After more than 100 days without a drop, Beijing finally enjoyed some precipitation. It was barely enough to wet the dry grass, turn the dust on the streets into a damp muck and fill the city with the smell of freshly dug dirt. But it was rain.
The capitol’s dry spell is but one indicator of the drought gripping north China. Today’s sprinkle may not make a huge difference in terms of total rainfall, but it comes at a key time as the winter wheat crop faces the risk of a serious loss of production without precipitation soon. When my home state of Iowa faced drought in 2002 (I was literally a farm league reporter, covering business and agriculture for the Des Moines Register), the key concern was not how much rain fell, but when it fell. Some crops, like soybeans, can stave off a lack of water almost indefinitely as long as they get some eventually. Others, such as corn, need rainfall or irrigation during specific periods of their growth cycle or they are ruined.
A few more wet days in north China could stave off the worst of the threat here. It’s important to remember that while this is the worst drought in half a century, China is much better equiped to handle such difficulties than it was in 1951. Irrigation technology is improved (though still behind developed nations), farms are more efficient, more drought-resistant strains are available and agricultural policy is more rational and not completely gripped by the Maoist ideology that contributed to the 1958-1961 famine. That’s why the government can say it still expects a decent harvest this year.