Could French Doubts On Afghanistan Influence Future Foreign Policy?

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French President Nicolas Sarkozy stands in front of the flag-draped coffins lined up outside the Invalides church, as tribute is paid by France to the seven French soldiers killed last week in Afghanistan during a national ceremony in Paris, Tuesday, July 19, 2011. (Photo: Jacques Brinon / AP)

It may wind up proving to be nothing more than mere politics, but if the re-thinking now being expressed by French Socialists about the country’s engagement in Afghanistan is in earnest, it could have some serious consequences for the military operations Paris is already involved in—and any more than might be looming.

On Sunday, Socialist officials responded to news of the 74th French soldier killed in Afghanistan with calls for rapid withdrawal of France’s 4,000-odd contingent from the country, and a wider “change of strategy” in a conflict they suggested has dragged on too long and is accomplishing little. Members of President Nicolas Sarkozy’s ruling conservative party derided the declarations as “political opportunism” seeking to exploit the death of another French soldier for a few summer time sound bites. And they may be. Yet with support of the mission in both Afghanistan and Libya now waning among voters, any Socialist cynicism that may have been involved also seems to be rooted in significant public impatience with foreign entanglements–and therefore potentially influential with election-minded policy makers.There is some basis to conservative claims that Sunday’s response by a trio of Socialists  to news of the French soldier’s killing by gunfire while patrolling near Kapisa was more about posturing than policy making. After all, Sarkozy announced his plans to begin a gradual pullout of French forces back in June, just hours after U.S. President Barack Obama signaled his intention to withdraw 33,000 American soldiers by the end of 2012. Meanwhile, Obama has made it clear he hopes to have all U.S. forces out of Afghanistan by the end of 2013—an eventuality that would spell the de facto end of the mission for all nations in the American dominated intervention. The Socialist call for France to fix a definitive exit date prior to the start of 2014–and without being conditioned by any American changes in plans–therefore seems a bit academic.

To some observers, the apparent second-guessing on Afghanistan by Socialists was outright hypocritical. After all, it was a Socialist-led government that was in power and approved France’s participation in the U.N.-sanctioned Afghan operation in 2001. And while there has been some sharp difference of opinion over new strategies to be adopted for successfully ending the Afghan intervention, Socialists have limited their dissent to calling for parliamentary debate on the issue, rather than seriously questioning the participation of French forces in the operation. They’ve also been thus far solid backers on Libya. Socialists legislators joined their rightist foes last month in overwhelmingly voting for France’s continued participation in the NATO-led air mission in Libya despite it already having become an open-ended slog with no real hope of resolution in sight. The recent calls to re-think the time table on wrapping Afghanistan up, however, raises the likelihood that rising doubts about how long the Libyan adventure should drag on will soon arise, too.

If Sunday’s declarations wind up marking the beginning of the French left taking considerable distance with the ruling right on foreign policy ahead of 2012 presidential and parliamentary elections, it comes at something of odd time—the soldier’s death not withstanding. True, the Libyan adventure that was sold to the public as a rapid slam-dunk effort to rid the world of Muammar Gaddafi and prevent the massacre of civilians has become a serious morass now heading towards its sixth month. Yet it has provided some recent reason for hope. On Sunday, news out of Libya spoke of encouraging advances by rebel forces sufficiently serious they forced Gaddafi to engage in more blustering about his hold on power. And that word of apparent success by determined and unified insurgent forces helped assuage some of the rising media attention—and growing fears among observers and the public–that intrigue and division among the opposition leadership had created tensions undermining the collective drive to topple Gaddafi.

So if things aren’t as bad as they could be—or even have been—why is Socialist reaction to another French military death in Afghanistan worth noting? First off, because it comes amid wider public wariness and unhappiness with the Afghan mission that many French voters now view as ultimately futile (despite reminders of its importance in reducing the threat of exported terrorism to Europe). Second, while public disgust of Gaddafi and his cohorts remains high, French opinion has watched the recent waffling by Western officials  about the requirements for ending the conflict (including more lenient treatment of Gaddafi himself) as indication the noble objectives initially in the mission have given way to corrupted pragmatism . Simply put, voters suspect their leaders have picked up on their doubts and impatience over Libya, and are now preparing to create some politically dumbed-down compromise for ending the conflict rapidly that in many ways will defeat the entire purpose of the Western intervention in the first place.

Add to that rising doubts over the legitimacy of the Libyan opposition leadership–and the rising costs of the mission as new, harsher debt-fighting austerity is being planned–and it’s not surprising to see why the French are losing patience with foreign conflicts. Against that, it also becomes clearer why opposition Socialists now appear ready to tap into that growing disillusionment as presidential and legislative elections next year loom. Though France’s participation in both conflicts initially received widespread support among the public and political class alike, that backing has recently reversed itself. A May poll showed 55% of French respondents saying Paris should pull out of Afghanistan immediately, while a July survey found 51% voicing opposition to continued involvement in the Libyan civil war.

As they look to break the long conservative lock on both the presidency and legislative power, French Socialists will seek to squeeze Sarkozy between the rock of the inevitable cost-cutting that the debt crisis is imposing, and the hard-place of accusation his to it was tardy, halting, and ultimately placed the burden on average French citizens while sparing businesses, the wealthy, and interests dear to the right like the military. As part of that, the left will also tally up the bills for costly foreign operations that show little signs of ending—and boasting even fewer concrete results. A rather cynical strategy if it’s one Socialists are indeed adopting, but given the dire economic situation set to get even grimmer in the coming months, a potentially effective one still.

But it also may be one that will shape French international action if France’s left can win back power with it. Because by playing into public weariness of involvement in foreign conflicts for electoral gain, victorious French Socialists would have a hard time reversing themselves once the world threw a geo-political crisis in the West’s collect lap begging for intervention. That would not only leave Paris disinclined to join international efforts that the left may now be turning as a weapon against Sarkozy, but leave NATO with even fewer members prepared to respond to crisis situations using alliance forces. And given France’s return as a full member and energetic participant in NATO over the past decade, a potential reversal of Paris’ attitude could be another blow to the alliance whose utility and future already seems increasingly at risk.