Syrian Defense Minister Killed as Rebels Strike at the Heart of Power

The fighting in Damascus is not quite an indication that the Assad government is about to fall. But it is a sign of how balkanized Syria is—and is likely to be.

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Balkis Press / ABACAUSA

Syrian president Bashar El Assad speaks with General Daoud Rajiha following his appointment to the position of Minister of Defense in Damascus, Syria, Aug. 9, 2011.

Updated: July 18, 2012 at 7:45 a.m. EST

By formally designating Syria a civil war, the International Committee of the Red Cross may have inadvertently revealed an uncomfortable prospect for the country’s future: Civil wars are typically protracted and bloody as both sides fight with their backs to the proverbial wall. And they rarely result in the complete vanquishing of either combatant party; far more common are political and territorial compromises that redefine the state. But when a civil war fought on sectarian religious lines reaches the capital city and the seat of power — as it did last weekend, prompting days of continuous fighting involving armor and artillery that continued to rattle Damascus into Wednesday morning, with Syria’s state-run TV saying that the country’s defense minister was killed in a suicide blast — the prospects for any kind of soft landing via a political settlement may have been eclipsed, leaving the country’s fate in the hands of its hard men.

Rebel propagandists touted their military operation in the capital as the beginning of a final offensive, but its scale suggested a more limited but nonetheless decisive objective: By forcing the regime to use armor and artillery in the capital, the rebels have sent a message to the regime’s key support bases that Assad has lost control of much of the country and that his promises to crush the rebellion ring hollow. The blast at national security headquarters that killed defense minister Daoud Rajiha and also deputy army chief, Assef Shawkat — who is also President Bashar Assad’s brother-in-law — is a signal that the regime’s ability to protect even its inner core is crumbling.

(MORE: In Syria, Rebels Celebrate Stunning Assassinations–and Send More Forces to Damascus)

“It happened in the most guarded neighborhood inside Damascus, very close to where Bashar and his mother and other family members are, and where there are many intelligence locations,” retired Syrian Brigadier General Akil Hashem, who is in exile in Paris, told TIME. “I received information that a bodyguard in the inner sanctum of the regime was the one who placed the explosives inside the building, and now Syrian television is confirming that too. The regime is collapsing from inside.”

The latest violence in Damascus may not spell the imminent collapse of the Assad order, but it puts the regime’s fate in writing on the wall: “Once the fighting gets into the key cities, the advantage passes from the military to the insurgents,” says Joshua Landis, a Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma. “As long as the fighting is confined to villages and small towns, those can be surrounded and pounded into submission with artillery fire. You can’t do that in a city of 5 million people. Your heavy weapons become meaningless, because you can’t destroy Damascus — and so, the city’s Sunni neighborhoods become a sea in which the rebels can swim and multiply.”

(PHOTOS:  Syria’s Slow-Motion Civil War)

By some accounts, the military during the past three days ordered whole neighborhoods in the capital to evacuate their homes in order to clear the rebels from Sunni areas. Not only do such actions confirm to the citizenry that the regime faces a popular insurrection rather than simply a terrorism problem, as its propagandists claim; they also  build resentment against the security forces and create an even more permissive environment for the insurgents. “But if the regime can’t drive the rebels out of the capital,” Landis notes, “the regime is finished.”

The brutality and mounting chaos of a war that has already claimed some 16,000 victims has certainly prompted many of the regime’s key Sunni backers to reconsider their allegiance. Assad’s regime is founded and maintained on an inner core of Alawites, a community which sees its interests and fate intimately tied to that of the ruling family and views the rebellion as a mortal threat. But the Alawites are just 12% of the population, and the regime has also relied on the backing of Syria’s Christians (some 10%), Druze (3%), and other minorities, as well as political and business elites from among the  Sunni majority to be able to govern the sprawling country. Eighteen months into the rebellion, the regime may no longer be able to count on its Sunni backers. And without them, it cannot for long maintain its rule over all of Syria.

Two high-profile defections earlier this month — top military man Gen. Manaf Tlass and former Ambassador to Iraq, Nawaf al-Fares — prompted many headlines suggested the regime was nearing collapse. But the unfortunate reality of Syrian power politics is that the significance of their defections has to be read through a sectarian prism. Both men were amongst the most senior Sunni figures of the regime, as have been all 13 generals that have jumped ship thus far. So far, there has been no sign of elements of the regime’s Alawite core being willing to jump ship. So the regime is certainly weakening, and its ability to govern all of Syria and restore the old order may be fatally damaged. But that doesn’t necessarily portend its imminent collapse.

(MORE: Syria’s Risky Arms Race)

“Until now, not a single Alawite, Christian or Druze of any significance within the military-political complex is known to have left Assad’s side,” notes Aron Lund, an analyst at Sweden’s Olaf Palme Center. “The fact that this core of religious minorities has remained cohesive is one explanation for the regime’s relatively strong position after more than a year of popular rebellion. It is also the reason that it can’t extinguish the uprising – Assad lacks both the manpower and the moral authority among Syria’s 65% Sunni-majority population. This growing sectarian polarization is now putting severe strain on the long-running alliance between Alawite and rural Sunni military families (as well as on the parallel alliance between the military and the Sunni urban commercial bourgeoisie).”

But, warns Lund, the loss of its Sunni allies won’t be enough to bring down the regime.

“Large-scale Sunni disavowal of the regime would in itself not be enough to convince most of the Alawite hard core around the president that the battle is lost,” he writes. “Quite the contrary, these members of the ‘inner regime’, who lack a safe exit from the conflict, are likely to try to dig down further in their home areas in northwestern/northeastern Damascus and western Syria, regardless of the fate of the rest of the country.”

(MORE: Will Syria’s Conflict Spill Over into War-Weary Iraq?)

It’s beyond doubt, now, that the decades-old political order of Alawite minority rule over all of the former Ottoman province on which modern Syria emerged at the end of World War I is nearing its denouement. The fight, now, may be increasingly over how and by what it is replaced. Despite a common sense of the dangers arising from the collapse of the Syrian state, divergent geopolitical stakes in the Middle East leave the international community unable to forge a joint response. Western and Arab powers are pressing for President Bashar Assad’s ouster, while Russia, China and Iran looking to prevent regime-change. U.N. Special Envoy was in Moscow Tuesday, hoping to convince Russia to put more pressure on Assad ahead of a Security Council vote on the future of its observer mission, while Secretary General Ban Ki Moon is doing the same in Beijing. But Western powers are unlikely get Russian and Chinese support for a new resolution threatening sanctions against the regime if it fails to pull back its forces.

Western powers remain reluctant to consider unilateral military intervention in Syria, mindful not only of their limited resources and political capital in the Middle East, but also of the perils inherent of taking effective ownership of a country in the throes of a civil war with region-wide consequences. At the same time, reports last week that U.S. officials believe the Assad regime has recently moved some of its known chemical-weapons stocks have underscored some of the dangers inherent in the regime’s collapse. While opposition figures insist Assad might use such weapons to ensure his regime’s survival, many Western analysts believe the regime may simply be safeguarding a key strategic asset against the prospect of international intervention or rebel territorial gains. Either way, that concern is a reminder of the potentially devastating consequences of Syria’s collapse.

But absent any prospect for a political solution between a regime digging in for a fight to the finish and an opposition that remains incorrigibly divided even as military rebels become more organized and capable — and determined to bring down Assad at any cost — Syria’s future looks set to be decided with arms, in the streets of its towns and cities. And that threatens a grim fate for many thousands more Syrians both before, and after Assad goes, with potential reverberations all across the “arc of instability” that runs from Lebanon to Afghanistan.

– With reporting by Vivienne Walt/Paris

VIDEO: A Syrian Soldier Claims to Have Witnessed Atrocities
21 comments
drorbenami
drorbenami

Gee Tony Baloney....

what is all the fuss about? why are these people fighting?

After all, you have been writing about the Middle East for years, yet you never wrote anything about Syria......

According to you,  Israel is the cause of all the problems in the Middle East....

Danyz
Danyz

A nice summation of the current situation. A red flag here though: the Defense Minister was killed by a suicide attack, a signature of al-Qaeda. If so, this would be but a tiny indicator of the chaos in store for this unfortunate nation should Assad fall. Al-Qaeda as we all know thrives on spreading chaos. The more nations involved, the better. Trouble is already seeping  into Iraq. Russia too, with its restive Moslem minority, must be aware of the potential consequences to its security interests that such a situation would present.

It is naive of the West then to assume that eventually Russia will come around to regime change. Why would they want to knock down a pillar of the foundation of their own regional security? Then too they have a close relationship with Shiite Iran.

The long and the short of it all is that the West, led by the not so brilliant Secretary of State Clinton, is flirting with major war. There would be no winners in such a conflict, but unfortunately, enough able and willing players to get it off the ground. Forget Romney's oily tax dealings. Recall his slip of the tongue some time ago to the effect that Russia is America's greatest security threat. This would indeed be so if this man assumes power and begins preparing for the war he believes to be inevitable.

polnick
polnick

Human pollution has become the number one problem in the Middle

East. The land cannot support its large population; Arabs have become a mass of

frustrated and useless people.  Outsiders

do not sympathize with or wish to feed or nurture their large families, many

wish they would just disappear. Civil wars are taking their toll as Arabs kill

each other for the little resources that are available, but their birthrate is

climbing and each day the Middle East becomes more dangerous. Genocide is an

ugly word but violent waves of unwanted people cannot be tolerated. A more humane

solution would be to heavily compensate Arabs who agree to be sterilized, in a

few decades the sound of music will replace gunfire and Jihads.

 

Danyz
Danyz

Why is it that these "unwanted people" never include the advocates of this inhuman belief system?

Igwe Kalu Kalu Ogba
Igwe Kalu Kalu Ogba

wouldn't read too much into this since the defence minister was a christian. Presumably the muslims fighting for Assad will be happier with a muslim killing muslims instead of a christian doing so

Firozali A.Mulla
Firozali A.Mulla

I remember a story. When I go for buying a fish, the fishmongers

tell me, 1   this one is fresh see the

eyes are still red, buy it. 2 My wife just caught but this 3. This is from the

Mediterranean water salt and sour but this. 4 please I need medicine for my son

buy this. I go buy the crab.. A new Senate report is slamming Europe’s biggest

bank HSBC, accusing it of allowing Mexican drug traffickers and possible

financiers of militant groups to use its U.S. operations for illicit

purposes.  What’s more, the report claims U.S. regulators knew of the

bank’s lax controls, and did nothing about it. The problem is wide that all are in the pot and the

water get warmer they scream "help" the only help available is the

coal seller and he want to make profit. Tell me how will he help? I thank you

Firozali A.Mulla DBA SO far all have had a say. Who is doing anything? That is

the crux of the modern economy and my small phrase THE FORGOTTEN ART OF

LISTENING. I thank you Firozali A.Mulla DBA

 

 

Guest
Guest

Why is the MSM insisting on leaving out the persecution of Oriental and Orthodox Christians by the Syrian Foreign Mercenaries fighting Assad?  Or glossing over Saudi, American, and Turkish provision of weapons...

For that matter, why do we never hear of Israel's many nukes, or the radiation signature reported at the Israeli Consulate in NYC a while back?

Why don't we hear this, if we fear religious zealots and racists - when Israel's leader is a religious zealot and racist?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Why, when it was painfully obvious that the Pentagon was purposely stacked with right wing, Likudnik, Zionist Jews under Bush, and that these Likudnik Jews cooked evidence to get the US to topple Iraq out of concern for Israel [not US security] - why did the media so fear to point out that what amounted to a cabal of Israel-First Neocons had essentially hijacked US intelligence and civilian oversight?

http://www.motherjones.com/pol...

http://radicalarchives.org/201...

http://wikispooks.com/wiki/9/1...

The correct and respectable desire to avoid a generalized anti-Jewish antipathy should not obfuscate the obvious fact that a minority of them, fiercely pro-war and pro-Israel, have in large part hijacked US policy.

We ignore it out of PC motives at our considerable peril.

Guest
Guest

Why is the MSM insisting on leaving out the persecution of Oriental and Orthodox Christians by the Syrian Foreign Mercenaries fighting Assad?  Or glossing over Saudi, American, and Turkish provision of weapons...

For that matter, why do we never hear of Israel's many nukes, or the radiation signature reported at the Israeli Consulate in NYC a while back?

Why don't we hear this, if we fear religious zealots and racists - when Israel's leader is a religious zealot and racist?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Why, when it was painfully obvious that the Pentagon was purposely stacked with right wing, Likudnik, Zionist Jews under Bush, and that these Likudnik Jews cooked evidence to get the US to topple Iraq out of concern for Israel [not US security] - why did the media so fear to point out that what amounted to a cabal of Israel-First Neocons had essentially hijacked US intelligence and civilian oversight?

http://www.motherjones.com/pol...

http://radicalarchives.org/201...

http://wikispooks.com/wiki/9/1...

The correct and respectable desire to avoid a generalized anti-Jewish antipathy should not obfuscate the obvious fact that a minority of them, fiercely pro-war and pro-Israel, have in large part hijacked US policy.

We ignore it out of PC motives at our considerable peril.

Guest
Guest

Why is the MSM insisting on leaving out the persecution of Oriental and Orthodox Christians by the Syrian Foreign Mercenaries fighting Assad?  Or glossing over Saudi, American, and Turkish provision of weapons...

For that matter, why do we never hear of Israel's many nukes, or the radiation signature reported at the Israeli Consulate in NYC a while back?

Why don't we hear this, if we fear religious zealots and racists - when Israel's leader is a religious zealot and racist?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Why, when it was painfully obvious that the Pentagon was purposely stacked with right wing, Likudnik, Zionist Jews under Bush, and that these Likudnik Jews cooked evidence to get the US to topple Iraq out of concern for Israel [not US security] - why did the media so fear to point out that what amounted to a cabal of Israel-First Neocons had essentially hijacked US intelligence and civilian oversight?

http://www.motherjones.com/pol...

http://radicalarchives.org/201...

http://wikispooks.com/wiki/9/1...

The correct and respectable desire to avoid a generalized anti-Jewish antipathy should not obfuscate the obvious fact that a minority of them, fiercely pro-war and pro-Israel, have in large part hijacked US policy.

We ignore it out of PC motives at our considerable peril.

Sid sridhar
Sid sridhar

Unfortunately,if a Government loses the support of its people, guns cannot keep it in power. This was so poignant, when Gandhi showed that the might of the Empire could not stop Indians from becoming free. Asad and his Ministers have become an illegitimate Government and hence the fall is inevitable. The Arab spring has shown that in the new internet age, nothing can stop an idea, whose time has come. The problem in most of the Arab World is that several Governments rule through sheer Military control and the people are not heard. The Saudis have been arming the Sunni majority in Syria. However, their own power base will soon come under threat. The World may be in for turmoil in this region for a decade. But, true will of the people will replace illegitimate Governments

Khagaraj
Khagaraj

Excellent article.Not one of those mindlessly anti- Assad,pro-rebel propagandist trash being regularly churned out by most of the Western media.Thank you,Tony Karon,keep up the good work.

JohnOBX
JohnOBX

Good work, lads.  Assad is a monster and those who fight with him are just heads of the hydra.

SiDevilIam
SiDevilIam

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and even Mitt Romney, et al, have stayed far away from this local inferno. A good sign. Kofi Anna's last unplanned visit to Moscow, fizzled, as was expected. Russians and Chinese, both are awaiting Barack, move before they design their own.

Looks like, we have a major foreign policy mess at hand.

Never in the history of regional, sectarian and religious wars, taking sides made things easier.

US media kept their propaganda mills going. From difficulties of not obtaining, authentic, verifiable news from Syria's pitched battlegrounds to lack of high level contacts, American foreign policy operatives and their friends in media, we have seen nothing but hogwash. So much so, that Fareed Zakaria like prominent journalists, have made false diagnosis/predictions.

I am on record, bashing Fareed for his judgmental behavior.

You, my friend, Tony Karon, are the first journalist who has said something that describes the true picture.

...and I am Sid Harth@webworldismyoyster:disqus .com

Io Tu
Io Tu

 Oh! I know. We will have another Egypt on our hands. Let's see how that turns out. We control their military (pretty much), but they have a MB president. This will be interesting to observe and see what the outcome will be. Remember, I TOLD you so.

Io Tu
Io Tu

I do not understand the "logic" to the West's approach to the M.E. I don't believe creating chaos will serve us at the end. Maybe short term gains, but no long term strategy here. Canot Globolize the masses of the M.E. Only their puppet governments (that someday will be ran over, and then what?).

Walter_Peterson
Walter_Peterson

The Christians might be wise to back off from Assad and make a separate peace with the Sunnis to minimize retribution to them. 

Babak Irani
Babak Irani

just like the christians in iraq who made separate peace with the shias right before and after the shia-killer saddam got toppled,

only to see themselves targeted by BOTH sunnis and shias and having to flee either to kurdistan or... ironically - syria.

the lesson: betray your hosts to make peace with the enemy and you will be targeted by BOTH (one because of fundamentalism, the other because of betrayal/treason).