Syria’s Assad May Be Losing Control Over His Deadly Militias

  • Share
  • Read Later
Vahid Salemi / AP

Syrian President Bashar Assad during a meeting with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran on Aug. 19, 2009

As the threat of an imminent U.S. attack on Syria dims, supporters and officials in the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad are quietly worrying about another potential crisis, one that hits even closer to home. Speculation in Damascus that the chemical-weapons attack against the rebel-held suburbs of Damascus on Aug. 21 may have been initiated by rogue elements within the Syrian armed forces raises fears about Assad’s overall grip on the forces fighting under him. One regime official tells TIME that what bothers him most about the long-term prognosis for Syrian stability is not the collapse of the regime, but the rise of Assad’s militias, commonly referred to as shabiha. Says the official: “After this crisis, there will be a 1,000 more crises — the militia leaders. Two years ago they went from nobody to somebody with guns and power. How can we tell these shabiha to go back to being a nobody again?”

Assad’s grip on the constellation of foreign and domestic militias fighting in his name is growing ever more tenuous, says the official, who spoke to TIME while visiting Beirut on condition of anonymity. The longer the war goes on, the more difficult it will be for Assad to control his own paramilitary forces, making a political solution even more difficult to achieve and setting the stage for an even nastier civil war should he fall.

It’s a dilemma that dogs the aftermath of any militia-waged war, from the Balkans to Afghanistan. If the men who lead armed groups on either side of the conflict refuse to give up power in the wake of a political resolution Syria could be torn apart by militias fighting over their hard-won territories, much like Afghanistan in the early 1990s before a widespread backlash against the warlords led to the rise of the Taliban. Western governments rightly fear the rising power of antiregime militias — some of which have ties to al-Qaeda — and are taking tentative steps to rein them in. But there has been remarkably little discussion about the future of Assad’s militias. “Assad is saying, let me win [the civil war] first, then I will deal with them,” says the official, who estimates that the militias number in the hundreds. “But I don’t see how. They could last for decades.”

Aaron Lund, a Swedish analyst who has covered Syria extensively and is now focusing his research on nonstate actors for the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, points out that while the Syrian military is still strong enough to defend Damascus and protect key bases, Assad has become increasingly reliant on both local and foreign fighting groups, like Lebanon-based Hizballah, to recapture lost territory and maintain government control in contested areas. “Their support has improved Assad’s staying power in many areas, but it also underlines the regime’s gradual loss of sovereignty and cohesion. If the war drags on long enough, the Assad regime is likely to devolve into a decentralized patchwork of sectarian and client militias, only superficially resembling Syria’s pre-2011 dictatorship,” he wrote in a blog post about his research.

The prevalence of the term shabiha to describe regime thugs gives the mistaken impression that they are all similarly aligned and loyal to the government. That is not always the case. Most of the proregime militias around the country are regionally based and funded by local businessmen or religious leaders eager to curry favor with the government and shore up their own protection networks. Like the word mafia, which is a close usage equivalent in English, shabiha has its origins in the loose-knit smuggling and organized-crime networks of Latakia province, the coastal enclave where Assad’s Alawite sect dominates. These days, shabiha are just as likely to be Sunni, Kurdish or even Eastern Orthodox Christian as Alawite, says Lund. Some gangs have been organized into Popular Committees, a kind of armed neighborhood watch with independent leadership and few centralized directives other than to defend the regime in whatever way they deem necessary. In many cases this means setting up roadblocks, taking bribes, charging protection money, looting the homes and businesses of suspected rebels and otherwise raising funds to cover their costs by dint of their weapons. “When these gangs can’t get financing from the government they start extorting the local communities,” says Lund. That enables them to keep fighting, but it also means they are less beholden to Assad. “The government has more important things to do than put a stop to it.”

According to a Syrian businessman close to the regime, Assad is aware of the growing threat of Syria’s militias and has struggled, inadequately, to contain it. Assad’s father, former President Hafez Assad, was similarly plagued by the predations of Latakia’s shabiha gangs throughout the 1980s and ’90s, and only managed to quash their strength near the end of his reign, in 2000. Bashar Assad’s success in keeping them reined in when he inherited the presidency from his father is now being undone, says the businessman who spoke to TIME on condition of anonymity. “[Assad] is telling his friends, ‘I managed to contain these groups for over 10 years. Now that they are unleashed, I can’t stop them.”

Assad’s reliance on Hizballah, particularly in the decisive victory over the strategic district of Qusayr in June, is equally fraught, says Lund. “Hizballah doesn’t answer to Syria, but to Iran. He has surrendered to a foreign militia where he is supposed to be sovereign.”

Earlier this year Assad announced the formation of the National Defense Army in Damascus, organizing the disparate Popular Committees into a cohesive organization that is armed, trained and salaried by the government. “This means they can be accountable,” says the businessman, “but only as long as the regime keeps paying them. If it stops, where is their loyalty then?” Loyalty is only part of the problem. As the militias’ depredations on the civilian population become more widespread and rule of law weaker, support for Assad, even in regime strongholds, could begin to waver. “The Assad regime’s selling point is that it can protect the country from anarchy and establish order, even if it is oppressive. If the regime seems to be decaying, it can’t make that sale anymore,” says Lund.

Middle Eastern despots such as Tunisia’s Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi and Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh have argued that their authoritarianism was necessary to combat the spread of transnational terrorist groups like al-Qaeda into their respective countries’ opposition. Syria’s Assad is no different. He recently claimed in an interview with French Newspaper Le Figaro the rebels fighting his regime are “80% to 90% … al-Qaeda,” and warned of catastrophic consequences should the fractious and undisciplined opposition militias have their way with Syria. But it could turn out that the next Syrian crisis is one of Assad’s own making.

79 comments
matt.crawford88
matt.crawford88

islam isa death cult,let them kill each other till the end of time

Lorie Mueller Amavisca
Lorie Mueller Amavisca

Jonas, 911 was all about raping and pillaging a country of their natural resources. Not terrorism. Sorry.

Lorie Mueller Amavisca
Lorie Mueller Amavisca

Reading these comments, between you two, is a perfect example of what is wrong with our political systems. You both have made same points as well as opposite of each other. I enjoy the different standpoints. I am very sorry you had to live in such a world growing up! I have many friends from all over the world, I am from America and would like to say I am disgusted with my own government. They are not much different, just sneaky here. I hope this is resolved peacefully.

Christine McAusland
Christine McAusland

They don't know what you're doing, it's an oil field and yes the other sort of million produce of fossil fuel is also there. Now if you'll excuse me very ever so powerful people are using Ireland as a tax shelter to avoid American duty.

Jonas Cardoso de Aguiar
Jonas Cardoso de Aguiar

The harm is small find that to be different is considered large. USA is a world power and has always looked for peace. Even before the attacks of September 11 remained inert and only sought terrorist leader rather than a war. These governments in the East dictators must end! We must fight for democracy from those who can not afford to fight because they are poor and they are few. Obama want a friend in Brazil intervention to arrest the thieves and corrupt politicians.https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=528780347208521&set=a.332941190125772.79747.332934666793091&type=1&relevant_count=1

Milton Chow
Milton Chow

His facial complexion is completely different, and the "toothbrush moustache" isn't even fully grown. So...no.

Gregg Grider
Gregg Grider

All individuals who released chemical weapons should stand trial for Crimes Against Humanity!

KasimKadir1
KasimKadir1

@ajaltamimi Isn't this even worse for the West?If he loses control over them and they fight on,there'll be no one to negotiate with!

Araik_Sargsyan
Araik_Sargsyan

@TIME @TIMEWorld Although Putin could say thank you to me, the author of the idea of monitoring the Syrian chemical.stocks!

mills_abbot
mills_abbot

@TIME @TIMEWorld Probably. With a target on his back no one on his staff wants to get within half a mile of him.

Aynura Le
Aynura Le

And you should do better than copy-pasting Wikipedia. You are a biased opinion and I'm as a balanced, well-read individual have expressed my opinion on the issue. Yeah, it might be your country, but starting a WW3 will adversely affect every individual in this world (we are too interconnected). So, I prefer Syria's Civil War stays within Syria's perimeters rather than exploding into a horrible bloodshed.

Aynura Le
Aynura Le

How do you know I am dumb? Every person is entitled to an opinion. And you are the a-hole throwing profanity first.

kalpajitgogoi2
kalpajitgogoi2

@TIME @TIMEWorld He was never in full control. With Hezbollah pouring in its anybody's guess that Iran not Assad who is in real control.

William Velez
William Velez

If Syria gets attack the war will be worst and more innocent people will die. If it get invaded it will be a nest for extremism and there will be no peace in that country.There is a risk of even a WWIII here.

Abdul Meqdad
Abdul Meqdad

Why don't you take Assad and have him rule your country for 43 years with his gang.

William Velez
William Velez

Sometimes the remedy is worst than the disease itself.

William Velez
William Velez

Syria is just a cover up for the real purposes of this war; the control of the Gas supplies to Europe and the Saudi domination of the government that would take over Syria.

William Velez
William Velez

Abdul Do you really think that Iraq, Lybia and Egypt are better places today?

Abdul Meqdad
Abdul Meqdad

You are talking to a Syrian who lived 30 years under the dictatorship of Assad's thuggish regime, and his secret police. So shut $&&$ and go take care of your business in your own country!

Aynura Le
Aynura Le

Oh, never mind...You are another living creature manipulated by media and Gov't. There is nothing to discuss with you.

William Velez
William Velez

It is for the international organizations and not for the US unilaterally to resolve this issue. The US cannot go into Syria without international support and approval. It is a violation of international law. How can we talk about enforcing intl. treaties and laws when the kind of enforcement we are proposing is itself a violation of international law?

Aynura Le
Aynura Le

There is a Civil War going on in Syria, for God's sake. Then, following your logic, Abraham Lincoln should be the greatest Butcher for killing the highest number of Americans during the American Civil War. You are stating the war casualties not victims of terrorist attack.

William Velez
William Velez

If you guys are blaming Al Assad for defending the Govt. from terrorist during a Civil War then Abraham Lincoln is the biggest butcher for having caused the biggest number of American Casualties during the Civil War. Civil Wars are bloody and Syria is going thru one.Before talk no sense go online and search the number of casualties during the American Civil war.

Aynura Le
Aynura Le

And how many died during Iraq war, when American military "accidentally" bombed civilian sites. So many women and children are dying all over the world not only in Syria. This is just a chess game in the international arena where Syria is being used as a pawn. No need to use profanity here, Abdul. Be a gentleman and have some respect to women.

Abdul Meqdad
Abdul Meqdad

Being a woman, is not an excuse to be dumb, and have no regards to innocent victims in Syria.

Aynura Le
Aynura Le

There is a Civil War going on in Syria, for God's sake. Then, following your logic, Abraham Lincoln should be the greatest Butcher for killing the highest number of Americans during the American Civil War. You are stating the war casualties not victims of terrorist attack.

William Velez
William Velez

Time magazine is creating the scenario so they have an excuse to blame an upcoming attack on Assad militias instead that on the American, Saudi and Israeli back Al Quaeda rebels and like that change the public opinion to create a War in Syria. This is about having the control of the Natural Gas Market.

jian272768873
jian272768873

You Americans are not crazy Syria own thing a bird thing you tube

Aynura Le
Aynura Le

And how many died during Iraq war, when American military "accidentally" bombed civilian sites. So many women and children are dying all over the world not only in Syria. This is just a chess game in the international arena where Syria is being used as a pawn. No need to use profanity here, Abdul. Be a gentleman and have some respect to women.

William Velez
William Velez

This is not about Syria is about America's ambition for Gas, money and supporting Al Qaeda.America is committing a great mistake and the WW3 that this will cause will cost the world decades to recover.

andbary
andbary

@Abdul MeqdadI'm surprised you survived.

By the way you swear, you have really grown up in an environment of bandits ...