The leaders of the two biggest Palestinian parties met in Cairo on Thanksgiving, and just going by the headlines afterward, you’d have thought nothing had happened. “Palestinians talk unity, no sign of progress,” said Reuters. AP: “Palestinian rivals talk, but fail to resolve rifts.” But read the stories, and it becomes clear that a …
Hamas
Israel Frets as Cairo Smolders and the Sinai Goes Qaeda
Imagine the tribal areas of Pakistan wedged snug against, say, Belgium instead of against Afghanistan. Next imagine that Belgium, usually so good about these sorts of details, hadn’t bothered to erect a border fence to at least try to keep the jihadis in their own yard. This is approximately the situation Israel suddenly faces with …
The Syria Game of Thrones: Turkey vs. Iran vs. the Saudis in Battle to Shape a Rebellion’s Outcome
The Arab League called Wednesday for “urgent measures” to protect Syrian civilians in the face of violent repression by the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. But lest anyone take that as an echo of the call that legitimized the NATO-led military operation in Libya, the League’s statement also rejected “all foreign intervention” …
Fayyad Reported Sidelined as a New Palestinian Political Era Emerges – Will Abbas Follow?
Once hailed by Western pundits as the technocrat-magician who would conjure a Palestinian state into being through irrepressible institutional competence, Salam Fayyad has been unceremoniously sidelined from his job as Palestinian Prime Minister according to a deal announced Tuesday — a sign of the collapse of the illusions …
Thwarted at the U.N., Is Palestinian Leader Abbas Headed Off Into the Sunset?
President Mahmoud Abbas’ attempt to persuade the U.N. Security Council to admit a state of Palestine as a full member of the international body has, all too predictably, hit a wall. The technical U.N. committee to which the issue was referred , not surprisingly, failed to reach a consensus (because there’s no consensus among Council …
Bracing for the Iran Nuclear Report: Will ‘Military Action’ Rhetoric Develop its Own Momentum?
If the proverbial “drumbeat” for war with Iran has grown more insistent in recent weeks, it’s about to turn into something akin to the opening bars of Black Sabbath’s “Iron Man“. That’s because the International Atomic Energy Agency is expected, in a report on Iran’s nuclear program due for release early this week, to suggest that the …
Israel Consumed by Debate over Whether to Attack Iran
All week Israel has thrummed with talk of launching a military strike on Iran. It began with published hints that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was preparing to move forward on plans to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, a pre-emptive move that he, along with his defense minister, Ehud Barak, long have been described as …
Smart Power? Not in the Middle East
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not the ideal test-bed for the proposition that the United States can compensate for the decline of its ability to influence events through military and economic muscle through “smart power“, putting diplomacy in the lead and leveraging more limited U.S. hard power through coalitions and making use …
EXCLUSIVE: Mahmoud Abbas Will Offer Hamas Elections in January, Says Aide
When rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas agreed to bury the hatchet in Cairo , the reconciliation pact promised two things: New elections by May 2012, and a caretaker government of technocrats to run the Palestinian Authority until then. That was more than five months ago, and ever since the two sides have been jammed up on the …
Good for Hamas? Ramallah Residents Weigh-in on the Gilad Shalit Prisoner Exchange
Just how good for Hamas was the Gilad Shalit deal? A good place to inquire was downtown Ramallah, the West Bank city, just north of Jerusalem. It’s the main stronghold for Hamas’ rival faction, the secular Fatah party led by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, popularly known as Abu Mazen. If Hamas is getting props around …
Gilad Shalit and the End of the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
As momentous as Tuesday’s release of Sergeant Gilad Shalit and 477 Palestinian prisoners (with another 550 to freed within two months) may be, it is unlikely to be a game-changer — or a milestone on the road to peace. Indeed, while the spectacle of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu breaking the ostensible taboo on negotiating with …
Who Gains, Who Loses in Israel-Hamas Prisoner Swap to Free Gilad Shalit?
Win-win outcomes are all too rare in the Middle East, but the agreement that will see Hamas free captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for a reported 1,000 Palestinian prisoners will allow each of its stakeholders to claim victory.
Details of the deal concluded in Cairo under Egyptian mediation remain sketchy, but it is …
Why the Pentagon’s Panetta is On a Hiding to Nothing in Israel
Israel is becoming increasingly isolated, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warned on Sunday, on the eve of his arrival there for talks with his Israeli counterpart, Defense Minister Ehud Barak. The — perhaps unconscious — subtext of that warning, of course, is that Israel’s isolation in the Middle East accelerates the decline of …